Source:
TheCinemaSource.com
Posted on: Tue, Jan 22, 2008 10:03:34
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Joe Wright, Atonement
Every year, there's always a surprise nominee in this category - Fernando Meirelles for City of God, Paul Greengrass for United 93, and so on. Many people were expecting Julian Schnabel to
fill that role - until he won the Golden Globe and his film started getting major attention and he became anything but a surprise. So I'm sticking in my biggest no guts, no glory contender: Sidney Lumet for
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. The Academy skews old, which means the 82-year-old Lumet might still have a lot more fans than people are counting on, and the film was a critical success.
You'll notice that my Picture/Director nominations only match up 2 out of 5. That's a pretty good indication that I've miscalculated somewhere down the road - usually it's more like a 4 out of 5 match.
Michael Clayton feels like it will be seen as more of a writing achievement than a directing achievement, but then again I've underestimated it all along. Joe Wright, meanwhile, is quite viable as
well. But Schnabel, the Coens, and Anderson feel quite solid, with Penn right behind them.
BEST ACTOR:
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Other contenders: Denzel Washington, American Gangster; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy, Atonement
Clooney and Day-Lewis are locked, locked, locked. I was certain that Mortensen would get snubbed all along, so I'm still worried about him - he was ignored for A History of Violence, and
Eastern Promises didn't have anywhere near that film's box office. Hirsch I'm also worried about, but I think thats jitters that goes along with really wanting him
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