The Challengers:

Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men: The buzz is getting stronger and stronger, as the long stretches of silence Brolin acts through in the film are working in his favor. Steven Spielberg watched it and immediately called Brolin up and said he wants to work with him. I’ll tell you, even an Oscar nomination wouldn’t make me as happy as that one phone call.

Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild: #1 on my wish list, Hirsch’s performance is brilliant. If he actually is able to sneak into the top five, he’d be the dark horse candidate to win – he carries the film on his shoulders through dialogue and silence, civilization and wilderness. Getting the nomination is the hard part.

Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl: He was just nominated for Half Nelson, which could help and hurt him. Box office for Lars hasn’t been great – but then again, neither was Nelson’s. A charming performance, it continues to win him fans, but I doubt the Academy will award him twice in a row for such similar circumstances. McAvoy and Hirsch are bigger news at this point.

Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises: Another guy on my wish list. The film didn’t exactly do incredible business, but the reviews are great and his performance is spectacular – what he needs is strong support from end-of-the-year critics’ awards. Plus, it helps that he’s also owed for A History of Violence.

John Cusack, Grace is Gone: Buzz was great at the Sundance Film Festival, and then it disappeared. It needs to come back. Even so, though, it might fall victim to the simple overcrowding of the race, akin to Kevin Bacon’s performance in The Woodsman a few years back.

Khalid Abdalla, The Kite Runner: Many pieces need to fall into place. The movie needs good reviews; his performance needs to be singled out specifically; and the general public needs to learn how to pronounce his name.

Mathieu