And finally, we get to the folks who still have outside shots, but…let’s be realistic. They are…

The Fading-Fast-ers:

Casey Affleck, Gone Baby Gone: Could score dark horse points, but there are too many up-and-coming young actors this year.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead: He’ll also get attention from The Savages and Charlie Wilson’s War, so this looks to be forgotten by then.

Christian Bale and Russell Crowe, 3:10 to Yuma: Any votes they have will split between the two of them. But they won’t have enough anyway.

George Clooney, Michael Clayton: Let’s stop pretending this is a serious contender. I liked it too, but it’s not going to happen.

Sam Riley, Control: Who’s Sam Riley, you ask? What’s Control? Exactly.

Javier Bardem, Love in the Time of Cholera: He’s a lock for Supporting Actor in No Country for Old Men, which could help his chances in this category for Cholera. But reviews have been wretched, so probably not.

Chris Cooper, Breach: Oh, that was this year?

Steve Carell, Dan in Real Life: It’d be nice, but it’s not going to happen.

Brad Pitt, The Assassination of Jesse James…; Benicio Del Toro, Things We Lost in the Fire; Joaquin Phoenix, Reservation Road: Their movies tanked.

Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah: I think he’s campaigning in the Supporting category for No Country for Old Men, but two well-received roles could end up hurting him. Plus, the movie tanked.

Oscar Spiel is a new column that will run weekly through the Oscar season.